December 2008

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We base all our experiments on the capacity of mankind for self-government.

-James Madison

November 24, 2008

Quick points on the auto industry bailout

A couple of things to consider about the American automobile industry:

First, Matthew Symonds of the Economist, as interviewed on NPR, makes an interesting point.

[Emerging markets Brazil, Russia, India, and China] will have sales this year larger than that of North America...

Well over 60% of GM's sales are outside of North America now...

GM has 10% of the Chinese market, which will be larger than the US market within 5 or 6 years.

That's pretty interesting, and it makes GM sound like a much healthier company than what I'm generally hearing in the discussions of a bailout these last few weeks. Sure, they are bleeding cash and are in trouble in the short term. But the long term sounds a bit different.

And Daniel Ikenson of Cato:

Even if one or all of the Big Three failed, there would still be plenty of strong auto companies operating throughout the United States. The Big Three currently account for slightly more than half of all light vehicle production and slightly less than half of all light vehicle sales in the United States. The rest of the U.S. auto industry includes Honda, Toyota, Nissan, Kia, Hyundai, BMW, and the other foreign nameplate producers who manufacture vehicles here. These companies employ American workers, pay U.S. taxes, support local businesses, contribute to local charities, have genuine stakes in their communities, and face the same cyclical contraction in demand as do the Big Three.

As Ikenson notes, most of us are well aware of the intellectual arguments against a bailout, and we are well aware that in one form or another the bailout is coming anyway. I've pointed out before that capitalists and businessmen tend to be painted as the bad guys in this sort of thing--they don't seem to know how to avoid that. so it's likely that in the public eye, this bailout will end up being the fault of the CEOs. Ikenson says as much, if you read his conclusion closely:

The politicians must know that bankruptcy is the better course for auto companies and their workers (indeed, it could save 100,000 jobs). But they also know who fills their political coffers, and the UAW leadership is opposed to Chapter 11 because its labor contracts would be deemed toxic and abrogated by a bankruptcy judge.

Just some things to keep in mind when the money flows.

Posted by Wulf | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

November 22, 2008

Slow and Steady

According to several news outlets, a new Code of Conduct will outlaw Happy Hour at pubs and clubs across Britain.

Happy hours, drinking games and all-you-can-drink deals in pubs and bars are to be banned, the British government will announce next month.

It is being reported that the Department for Health will go so far as to curb offers of free drinks for women. [If this were a crass website, sexist jokes would go right here. Just sayin'.]

Teetotalers suggest that this move is necessary to balance out the fact that as of three years ago, pubs are actually permitted to operate 24 hours a day if they'd like to. As usual, the busybodies and the proposed government action completely fail to address the real problems (lack of individual responsibility) by taking away personal liberties (and individual responsibility) in a ridiculous, Orwellian move that could drive one to drink. So long as there are no games or promotions around.

Slow, steady, serious, round-the-clock drinking. Apparently, that's the way the British government wants it.

Cheers.

Posted by Wulf | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

November 8, 2008

Foreign policy and international public opinion

Matthew Yglesias writes that to succeed in putting forth a progressive foreign policy, Barack Obama will need to get the support of moderate Republicans and effectively peel them away from the neoconservative agenda. That shouldn't be too difficult, though Yglesias correctly notes that it needs to have the right spin in order to be helpful.

But there is one part of this article that really caught my attention:

...unlike on domestic issues, an Obama administration won't be able to simply assume that public opinion supports them on crucial national-security questions. There remains considerable evidence that the public has more implicit faith in the GOP's ability to keep the country safe.

I suppose that's true of the American public, but Obama's election was heralded the world over. This gives him opportunities. Like it or not, the fact that only Americans can vote for our president does not mean that only American opinions matter. Our foreign policy options depend in part on how much foreigners like and trust us. A savvy president can certainly use that to his advantage.

The American public may have more implicit faith in the GOP's ability to keep the country safe, but the public in most other countires seems to have more implicit faith in Barack Obama than they do in anybody in the Bush administration. If he is able to build his current cult of personality into any level of international goodwill, his administration certainly will be able to assume that the public supports them on crucial national-security questions. If done right, he could be afforded more cooperation and an even freer hand by people in other nations than by the general public of his own. In this regard in particular, it will be interesting to see how he measures up with the last several presidents.

Posted by Wulf | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

November 6, 2008

Palin's future

She's probably a lovely woman in some contexts. But if the GOP makes even a slight move to bring her out of Alaska again in 2012, I think it'll be a mistake. There should be some kind of basic intellectual requirement to this process... like knowing what the hell Africa is, for starters.

Update:McQ seems to think that Palin "is going to be around in Republican circles for a long time," and that she just needs to let people see the real her, free from the McCain handlers. It's possible that this could change her image enough to make her a viable 2012 candidate, but I think it's a pretty damned steep hill to change the mind of the American public that much. Quayle is forever a moron. Dole and McCain are forever "old guys". And while I'm sure sure Palin is much more intelligent than she has been portrayed, I think she'll always come across as an anti-intellectual, in the bad way.

Anyway, I've left some comments on the matter over there. Thought you might like to know.

Posted by Wulf | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

November 5, 2008

What future for conservatives?

You know something weird is going on if I'm quoting/linking Mark Steyn (whose writing I just don't personally care for):

As for us losers, there's no point going down the right-wing version of Bush Derangement Syndrome. Any shrill vicious ad hominem invective would be much better directed at each other. The Republicans lost this election.

First, yes. The Republicans lost this election because they aren't unified and they've lost their way. I say that as somebody who has never been a registered Republican, but who knows he has a vested interest in how the Republicans respond to the 2008 elections. I just might be a Goldwater-style Republican, if the GOP would just give a damn about those kind of values. For all the lip service about small government, the GOP just hasn't delivered, and I've found that more offensive than the openly big government redistributionist rhetoric from Democrats over the years. I've found it so distasteful that I've gone for the protest vote in the past.

Christ, when you've got me voting LP over Republican, you're clearly not offering me a viable small government option. You're doing it wrong.

Second, Steyn is completely correct about there being no point in developing the right-wing version of Bush Derangement Syndrome. It was a putoff when you did it with Clinton, and he was slick enough to make you look stupid for it. Obama will, too. And it's just not helpful. Grow up and focus on the issues. (Wait, Steyn said that? It must be serious.)

Steyn, again:

I think we are near a point at which America joins the rest of the west as a center-left society — that's to say, a society whose assumptions about the role of government and the size of the state are far closer to Continental social democracies than to the Founding Fathers. In a grim media-cultural environment, the temptation for American conservatism is to be seduced into becoming one of those ever so mildly right-of-left-of-right-of-left-of-center parties they have in Europe. We should have the fight about conservatism's future vigorously and openly...

This fight is currently going on in several places, including The Next Right, a website whose very purpose is to have that fight and define the direction of American conservativism. Unsure about whether they're being serious? Check out this gauntlet thrown by Jon Henke:

The problem is not Republican politicians, although many Republicans politicians are a problem. The problem is not with the basic ideals of limited government and personal freedom, either. The problem is a movement that plays small-ball and cedes responsibility for infrastructure to business interests, leadership that rewards those who make friends rather than waves, an entrenched Party and Movement support system that mostly supports itself, an echo chamber that has rotted our intellect, a grassroots that is ill-equipped to shape the Republican Party, and a Republican Party that has replaced strategy with tactics, substance with marketing.

Now is exactly the time for Republican soul-searching... does the GOP want to stand for something other than raw opposition to the Democrats? This can't be decided in smoke-filled back rooms. It has to be done openly, or it will look like the rhetoric and gimmicks.

If you want in, get in. If you don't, you have no business saying the Republican Party is any better than the Democratic Party.

Posted by Wulf | Comments (1) | TrackBack (0)

November 1, 2008

For The Love Of The Game

SEC football. Some say it's the best in college sports. They also say that the passion runs deep for college football in those parts of the country. Here's some proof.

Three counties in Georgia decided to plan a day off on Friday for their school districts. It seems no teachers wanted to show up. In Clarke County where the University of Georgia is, they had 137 teachers call in sick last year on this Friday. They could only find 113 substitutes.

Why you ask? Because it is 360 miles to Jacksonville, FL home of the annual "Biggest Cocktail Party in the World." The Bulldogs play the Florida Gators every year on this neutral site and I'm guessing these teachers didn't want to wait until classes were over before making the drive down. Plus the Friday night before is quite a party anywhere within 50 miles of Jacksonville. Add Halloween into the mix? You get the idea. So the school districts adjusted their calendars in order to accommodate.

Some may say it is a bad lesson for the children, citing that it is putting emphasis on football instead of academics. I think it is a great idea since these children probably wouldn't be learning too much from the subs anyway. May as well give them a true learning day.

So enjoy the game UGA fans. I hope your team can beat the Gators and have a story to tell your classrooms on Monday.

Posted by G-Dawg | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)

Why does the world hate us?

Because they don't know us. Anecdote #28:

Dmitry Chesnokov of Puck Daddy blog: What has surprised you the most about American culture, and about playing hockey in Washington DC?

NHL star Alexander Semin: It's about the overall culture: On the roads, in stores, basically everywhere everyone is very considerate and nice. There is virtually no "I don't care" attitude.

Haters and apologists alike can ponder that.

The interview is here, and it's good if you like hockey. If you don't, then I imagine it's not very interesting.

And as for you, Alex Semin, I'll see you on December 26 at 7:00.

Posted by Wulf | Comments (0) | TrackBack (0)