September 2008

Sun	Mon	Tue	Wed	Thu	Fri	Sat
	1	2	3	4	5	6
7	8	9	10	11	12	13
14	15	16	17	18	19	20
21	22	23	24	25	26	27
28	29	30

We base all our experiments on the capacity of mankind for self-government.

-James Madison

Will Obama win Virginia?

There has been a lot of speculation that Red Virginia is turning Blue. There has been a lot of population growth in Northern Virginia, which leans Left more than the rest of the state, and the thinking goes that this can swing the presidential election for Barak Obama. Personally, I don’t quite buy it. But I think the Obama camp does, because they are focusing some attention this way. Let’s take a quick look at who’s right.

Two years ago, Virginia elected Democrat Jim Webb to the US Senate over incumbent Republican George Allen. Governor Tim Kaine is a Democrat who is frequently mentioned as a potential VP candidate on the Obama ticket. Our former governor Democrat Mark Warner is a shoe-in for the Senate seat being vacated by the retirement of Senator John Warner. Mark Warner is the keynote speaker at the Democratic National Convention – an indication that he and Virginia are seen as important to the Democrats.

So to recap: the last two governors are Democrats, and we will have gone from two Republican Senators to two Democrat Senators in the span of two years. Yeah, it looks like this red state is turning blue.

But wait.

Mark Warner and Tim Kaine are conservative Democrats. Senator Webb is also conservative by Democratic standards, and he barely won his seat despite international media furor when Allen shot himself in the foot in the “Macaca” incident. This does not actually extrapolate well to support for an inexperienced Senator Obama, who is not exactly the type of conservative Democrat that appeals to Virginians. This may matter quite a bit. As Republican Congressman Tom Davis told NPR,

What you have is some changing demographics but most of it is just the Republican brand name being in the trash can, enabling wide-awake Democrats to take advantage of that. And in Virginia they've done that.

If he is correct, it may not be so much that Virginia is turning blue as that the red lights have been getting dimmer because of weak candidates and the failure of Republicans to deliver on conservative promises.

In addition, let’s keep in mind that Virginia isn’t quite the bastion of Republican voting power that it’s sometimes been made out to be. While it’s true that the state hasn't voted for a Democratic presidential candidate since LBJ in 1964, it’s also true that since 1964 the state has had five Democrat governors--Chuck Robb (’82), Gerald L. Baliles (’86), L. Douglas Wilder (’90), plus Warner and Kaine.

Let’s also consider that Wilder was the first African American to be elected as governor in the USA. That didn’t happen in California or Massachusetts or some other traditionally Left state, but here in the supposedly conservative state of Virginia.

And let’s further consider that the Senate seat currently occupied by Jim Webb had actually belonged to the Republicans only for two terms since 1964. George Allen held it for only one term (’01-07) and Paul Trible for only one term (‘77-‘83). Since 1964, those are the only two terms that seat has been Republican. Again, hardly the deep blue state we thought.

So what I’m trying to say here is that I don’t think we’re seeing a major shift in Virginia voting habits, or at least not on the scale and pace that has been suggested by many of the articles I’ve seen. Yes, Democrats will hold the governor’s office and both US Senate seats. But no, that’s not indicative of Virginia joining the New England voting block. Virginians have always been willing to elect Democrats, but they have to be our kind of Democrats. That means no John Kerry, no Al Gore, no Bill Clinton... and potentially no Barak Obama. Senator Obama is going to have to work very, very hard to carry Virginia this fall, and it may not be enough to throw us a bone by putting Tim Kaine on the VP short list and inviting an obvious rising star to speak at the Convention.

Posted by Wulf on August 14, 2008 at 02:15 PM

Trackback Pings

TrackBack URL for this entry:
http://www.atlasblogged.com/cgi-bin/mt/mtb.cgi/643

Comments

It's not a question of mere "voting habits;" it's a question of fundamental demographics. Liberal NoVA is vastly outgrowing the red "War of Northern Aggression" southern part of the state.

My contacts in Virginia, both north and south, are quite convinced that the state is now solidly Democratic and will vote for Obama in November.

Posted by: KipEsquire at August 14, 2008 2:48 PM

Most of my contacts throughout the state are similarly convinced, but I am not. The latest polls indicate the state is a toss-up. But my understanding is that there are very few individual districts that are actually in contention. Obama will carry Northern Virginia, Richmond, and a few other well known blue areas. Rural Virginia will support McCain. These demographics aren’t the question. It’s voter turnout. Who can better “run up the score” in the areas they already know they will win. And barring a major gaffe or “moment” by either McCain or Obama, that may not be clear until the votes are actually counted. It certainly isn’t a given right now.

To be clear, I don’t question that the demographics are changing in favor of the Left, but it seems primarily to be making already blue districts into a deeper blue. We’re not actually seeing a lot of districts change habits. I just think this “blueing” of Virginia is much slower and less dramatic than people seem to think. I believe pundits are being fooled by misunderstanding recent Democrat victories. Keep in mind, Jim Webb only won that seat from George Allen by 9329 votes.

I’m definitely not saying that Obama can’t win here, but I am saying that the narrative is often told using Warner, Webb, and Kaine as supporting evidence that the state is going to go Democrat in the future. I don’t think it is legitimate to extrapolate from the three of them to somebody farther Left, like John Kerry or Barak Obama.

Posted by: Wulf at August 14, 2008 3:24 PM

We base all our experiments on the capacity of mankind for self-government.

-James Madison

Will Obama win Virginia?

Trackback Pings

Comments

Post a comment