• But in here it's so delightful - thoughts on Obama and the weather
• Protectionism: Everybody stimulate yourself!
• I like the pictures
• Mandela, King, Gandhi... Blagojevich
• Shovels are so 1933
• The cutting edge is nipping at its own tail
• Funny Because It's True (yet again)
• Obligatory Gaza
• Being Reasonable--reaction from the Muslim family recently thrown off a flight by AirTrain
• Won't you be my neighbor?
• Snowzilla
• ZOMG! Radioactive coal sludge will kill us all! (updated)
• Quick points on the auto industry bailout
• Slow and Steady
• Foreign policy and international public opinion

• January 2009
• December 2008
• November 2008
• October 2008
• September 2008
• August 2008
• July 2008
• June 2008
• May 2008
• April 2008
• March 2008
• February 2008
• January 2008
• November 2007
• October 2007
• September 2007
• August 2007
• July 2007
• June 2007
• May 2007
• April 2007
• March 2007
• February 2007
• January 2007
• December 2006
• November 2006
• October 2006
• September 2006
• August 2006
• July 2006
• June 2006
• May 2006
• April 2006
• March 2006
• February 2006
• January 2006
• December 2005
• November 2005
• October 2005
• September 2005
• August 2005
• July 2005
• June 2005

« Hair of the Dog | Main | Hold my calls... »

Presumption best precedes failure

Columnist Dana Milbank poked fun at Barak Obama today for behaving as though he had already won the presidential election. Third-hand, we are told that Obama said the following to House Democrats yesterday:

"This is the moment . . . that the world is waiting for... I have become a symbol of the possibility of America returning to our best traditions.

What's interesting is that it doesn't matter whether or not he actually said this. Supporters will see nothing wrong with it, and for detractors it will only confirm their opinions of him. But for me, the statement makes an interesting contribution to a thought experiment about failed candidacies.

If Barak Obama wins the election, I think we all know that John McCain's presidential aspirations are over. He will finish out his fourth term in the Senate and he might even surprise us by seeking a fifth term in 2010, but nothing more.

But what will happen to Barak Obama if John McCain wins? Will he immediately run for re-election in the 2010 Senate race? And from there... what? A 2012 repeat of Obama and Clinton duking it out for the Democratic nomination? How will Democratic politicians treat him if he has to spend the next four years as the presumptive nominee? Democratic voters won't fall out of love with him if he loses - hell, they still absolutely love Al Gore and Bill Clinton, so we know they have long memories. But can he possibly keep the golden child mojo working without ruffling a lot of feathers? What would he become in American pop culture? Would a 2012 defeat (either for the nomination or the presidency) end him? Would a 2010 Senate defeat end him? Could even a defeat this fall unravel everything?

I know that whenever he does finally fall, it will be attributed to evil forces in the Republican corporate-political machine, bent on destroying hope and the best traditions to which Mr. Obama refers. And it will be so ugly. But at this point, I just can't wait for it to happen. Not because I wish any ill will on Mr. Obama, but for no reason other than because I don't like presumptiveness. As some anonymous wag said on Fark! this morning, "What he is doing seems to be as smart as copyrighting "19-0" a week before the super bowl."

Yes, that is an excellent analogy.