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When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?

-John Maynard Keynes

Turkey, the Kurds, and the E.U.

So I was reading the Economist last night, and two articles in particular caught my attention. They describe the likely coming military conflict between Turkey and Iraqi Kurdistan - a situation the U.S.A. does not want to see turning more violent. It turns out that my fellow Inactivist Alex wrote about those same two Economist articles yesterday. He summed up the situation thus:

A group of Kurdish militants/terrorists/freedom fighters/(insert preferred term here) called the PKK (Kurdish abbreviation for Kurdistan Workers' Party) is fighting the Turks but hiding in Iraq. The Iraqi Kurds have, at times, helped the Turks crack down on the PKK. Lately, however, the Iraqi Kurds have decided not to fight the PKK. The attacks continue, and Turkey now talks of invading northern Iraq to go after PKK strongholds.

So how can we encourage Turkey not to invade Iraq to strike the PKK strongholds? It's hard to argue that they shouldn't do it - though Inactivist regular Sam Franklin tries, in the comment section. (I couldn't resist poking him.) What we can argue is that there might be something Turkey wants more than it wants to invade Iraqi Kurdistan - especially if we can influence Iraqi Kurdistan to stop incursions into Turkey in the first place. In fact, I feel that the best answer to the situation is as clear as adding two and two - except that it doesn't hinge on the U.S.A. It hinges on the E.U.

As I said at Inactivist:

If only there were something Turkey really wanted, that might be used as leverage in negotiations. Something even Turkey's historical enemies might support. Something that would actually benefit the West in the perceived global culture war - secularism and materialism over religious and ethnic considerations.

The problem, of course, is that the E.U. doesn't seem to particularly want to admit Turkey. From the Economist article I linked above:

This week things went much as expected. The European Commission proposed suspending part of Turkey's membership talks, to punish it for failing to open its ports and airports to Cyprus... Yet the mood has turned unusually bad. The Turks are angry, the Europeans unbending, and it is hard to see how the talks can ever be unfrozen. For the row is not really over Cyprus but over growing doubts about whether Europe really wants Turkey to join the club.

Why wouldn't the E.U. want Turkey? People point to a lot of reasons, including poverty and a record of human rights abuses. But it seems like an obvious strategic move to admit Turkey anyway. Again from the Economist:

Its strategic significance is obvious. It abuts Iraq, Syria, Iran and the Caucasus; it has a big army (the second-biggest in NATO); in an era of energy insecurity its network of oil and gas pipelines is increasingly important. Above all, it is a rare example of a mainly Muslim country with a thriving, secular democracy and a liberal, free-market economy. The West's failure to promote liberal democracy in the Middle East makes it all the more pressing to support the only democratic Muslim country in the neighbourhood.

So what's the problem? I don't want to believe that it is as simple as some suggest - ethnic prejudice, or perhaps religious. Could it really be that Europe (much like America) seems to be comfortable with secularism only when it is Christian secularism? I'd like to think not, but couldn't it come across that way to 1.4 billion Muslims worldwide who have a lot of input on how peaceful our future will be? When people add two and two, the U.S.A. does have some influence on the math. The Turks will be adding two of what, and two of what?

Unfortunately, noting that smart moves on the part of the E.U. can keep this situation from blowing up is a far cry from expecting it.

Posted by Wulf on December 17, 2006 at 12:26 PM

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When the facts change, I change my mind. What do you do, sir?

-John Maynard Keynes

Turkey, the Kurds, and the E.U.

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