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« Anthropomorphizing the Weather | Main | I Love You Too Cecilia Lucas »

What, Exactly, in Proportion?

This AP article on the current situation in Lebanon spells out very clearly what the biggest problem will be in trying to secure a ceasefire between Israel and Hezbollah. And it has nothing to do with a lack of effort on the part of the United States or the U.N.

Mideast observers say Hezbollah only has to remain standing — not beat Israel — to emerge victorious in Arab eyes.

Exactly so. The terrorist organization has been using more advanced technology than ever before in this recent round of violence, striking with Syrian-made and Iranian-made rockets that have the range to hit the port city of Haifa and possibly as far as Tel-Aviv. They also struck an Israeli warship off the coast of Beirut – a surprising capability. This means that the question of proportional response is not a simple matter of comparing body counts. Neither is it as simple as comparing body counts as a percentage of total population, as Newt Gingrich has. Not only is Gingrich getting flamed by the left for the comparison (“Does one Israeli really equal 47 Americans?”), but it simply isn’t the way the Israeli military or politicians will look at the situation, because the number of dead civilians is not the best metric by which to determine when Israel has gone far enough. With nearly 400 dead in Lebanon and over 100 dead in Gaza, it would be easy to say that Israel’s response has been disproportionate – they’ve only suffered a few dozen casualties. But the Israeli military will measure their casualties against the number of Hezbollah guerillas, and that number is very low, possibly still under 100. Between that and the inability thus far of Israeli strikes to lessen the frequency of rocket attacks, the current offensive must be measured as not yet effective by Israeli generals. So long as that is the case, Israel cannot pull back without being seen as losing this conflict.

More importantly, the Israeli response to the July 12th cross-border raid will be measured by Israeli politicians against only one thing: the threat of future attacks from Hezbollah. Having engaged the enemy, Israel cannot now afford to back out of Lebanon prior to severely weakening Hezbollah. The total destruction or even disarming of the organization is an unrealistic goal, but for some time Hezbollah has felt free to antagonize and attack without fear of reprisal. How could Israel retaliate? While no state agent would risk starting a war with Israel (because the danger of losing territory and civilian lives), Hezbollah is not a state, and it has neither territory nor civilians to lose. Thus, Israel cannot measure their success or failure in terms of square miles conquered or civilians killed. It is a false metric.

Back to the AP story:

Israel might want to use a cease-fire to achieve its strategic goals. But a cease-fire that leaves Hezbollah's fighting ability intact could, in the eyes of many Israelis, cause irreparable damage to Israel's deterrent posture and hand a major victory to archenemy Iran, Hezbollah's prime supporter.

Again, exactly so. If Israel withdraws from this conflict while Hezbollah still has the capability to launch cross-border raids or lob rockets into Haifa, they become extremely vulnerable not only to future attacks from Hezbollah but from other terrorist groups as well. And for Hezbollah’s part, they cannot afford to back down without losing political influence in Lebanon and making sponsor-state Iran lose face.

We all know that a long-term peace between the two sides is impossible, but how do we go back to the way it was a few months ago? We cannot - ever. That’s the whole point that Hezbollah is making with each rocket, and it is important that the world recognize this when judging the situation.

Update 18:30 EST - I wish I had thought to mention this earlier, but the terrorist groups will, of course, pick now as the best time to ask for peace. After all, Israel looks bad with the average television viewer who sees the bombed out buildings and hears about the civilians who have been displaced or killed, but Hezbollah has not yet suffered much. Offer a truce, knowing that Israel cannot accept it for reasons outlined above. The media will carry the offer, and its rejection. Of course, that's exactly what has been happening over the last couple of days. Jay at StopTheACLU says that the terrorists are only making such an offer because they are losing. On the contrary. The offer is pure show, because they aren't really losing yet. Now, with the offer rejected, Hezbollah is saying that Israel is overreacting to the capture of just two soldiers, and the terrorists vow to fire rockets even farther into Israeli territory.
All the terrorists have to do now is keep their heads down, lob a few rockets now and again, and let the Israelis continue to kill Lebanese civilians and UN observers. So far, they couldn't have scripted this better themselves.