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« The "Air Enronization" of the MSM Continues | Main | Collectivists Take Heed, and Go To Helsinki. »

August 14, 2005

Gaza

By now, Israel has officially started the pullout from Gaza, ending a 38-year occupation of territory in the hope that it will bring peace closer. Absolutely nobody thinks this would actually stop the conflict in that region, even if the pullout went according to plan, which it will not. In fact, it was never expected to go according to plan - a discouraging situation for the planners, to be sure.

Several hundred Israeli citizens - sorry, "settlers" - say they are not leaving. There are reports of "up to 5,000 hard-line activists from outside Gaza who planned to block forceful evictions." I guess they never heard of eminent domain.

Now what?

Well, now the Palestinian Authority (PA) will now be responsible for maintaining order in Gaza. This will prove to be absolutely impossible - which is what Israel has been saying for years. Few if any Palestinians will be orderly about the situation, and even fewer will feel that this consession by Israel is enough to let bygones be bygones - after all, Israel still exists as a state, and how can Arabs be expected to live with that?

The PA is simply not up to the task. In fact, the PA is not up to the task of maintaining peace and order at a grade school football game. It is desperately short on guns and ammunition - according to a report by the Strategic Assessments Initiative, the PA has approximately one third of the weapons in the Gaza Strip. They do not have enough weapons to arm all of their members. They are a corrupt, unpopular organization undergoing a power struggle involving (among others) former intelligence chief Musa Arafat. It's a long report, but at least skim it.

Hamas does not seem to suffer from the same bureaucratic problems and unpopularity, and there is little they would like better than an opportunity to strike at Israel in a way that makes the PA look bad. This could be their Mardi Gras. And there is always the possibility of smaller groups than Hamas, or even totally unorganized violence. The violence associated with this pullout may actually push Cindy Sheehan off the front page of the newspapers.

It might not start today, but there will be more trouble in Gaza than just the Israeli military evicting settlers and protestors. Expect it.

Wulf Posted by Wulf on August 14, 2005 at 11:31 PM

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Comments

Sharon should ask the Indians on how land for peace works.

Posted by: Isiah at August 15, 2005 8:10 AM